Ten Bullet Points from Bonn

Bonn Climate Change Conference, May 2012 

New data on climate change has come in from Bonn and the situation looks pretty grim. Mr Kishan Kumarsingh, Head of MEAU and Ms Jewel Batchasingh, Climate Change Specialist are currently engaged in talks in Germany and sent us alarming new stats:

1. In 2011, global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentrations surpassed 390 ppm (parts per million), which is higher than at least the last 800,000 yrs and likely, more than the last 5-10 million yrs[1].  To make matters worse, the average annual growth rate has not slowed over the past 30 yrs[2]. 
2. 2011 was the 11^th warmest year since records began in 1850, despite the globally cooling influence of the La Niña phenomenon.  In fact, 2011 was the warmest “La Niña” year ever recorded[3].
3. The rate of sea-level rise has increased during the last few decades. In the last 20 yrs, it is double the rate observed over the entire last century[4]. Scary stuff for islanders.
4. Sea-level rise over the past decades has been at the top end of the range projected in Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports.
5. Massive ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica is occurring more rapidly now, becoming the largest contributor to sea-level rise[5]. Mountain glaciers are also losing ice faster than projected.
6. Sea-level rise figures for the Pacific and the Caribbean are higher than the worldwide average[6]. Although these large regional variations may be temporary, they will exacerbate the risks of the impacts of sea-level rise on the vulnerable Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like Trinidad and Tobago.
7. The IPCC Special Report on Climate Extremes indicated that over 95% of deaths from natural disasters occurred in developing countries between the years 1970 and 2008. One of the impacts of climate change is believed to be an increased frequency of natural disasters.
8. It also shows that in many cases in small exposed countries, particularly SIDS, economic losses from extreme events exceeded 1% of GDP, and in some cases up to 8% GDP.
9. It is projected that the length, frequency and/or intensity of heat waves will very likely increase over most land areas, and that the average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, or intensity, is likely to increase.
10. The IPCC Special Report also found that if disasters occur more frequently or stronger, some local areas will become less attractive and more difficult as places to live in. Thus, migration and displacement could become permanent, particularly in the case of atolls, leading to more pressure in areas of relocation.

     Greenland has reported massive ice loss in recent years

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[1] van de Wal, R. S. W., B. de Boer, et al. (2011). "Continuous and self-consistent CO₂ and climate records over the past 20 Myrs." Climate of the Past Discussions 7(1): 437-461.

[2] Manau Loa, Global CO2 trends, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global

[3] WMO, March 2012

[4] Meyssignac, B. and A. Cazenave (2012) Journal of Geodynamics

[5] Jacob and colleagues (2012) Nature; Gardner and colleagues (2011) Nature; Moon and colleagues (2012) Science; Lee and colleagues (2012) Earth and Planetary Science Letters; Rignot and colleagues (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

[6] Nicholls and Cazenave (2010) Science; Becker and colleagues(2012) Science